Why are we waiting?

The suspense over where Johnny will go in 2001 mounts. Lisa Davidson, our new US correspondent, muses on what's causing the delay and which teams are likely employers when Johnny crosses the Atlantic. By Lisa May Davidson, 11th October 2000.

I want to know, just as any other Johnny Herbert fan, where he will be racing next year. What I know that maybe you don't, is that figuring this out is difficult for everyone involved in CART - whether one is a fan, an engine manufacturer, a driver, or a sponsor. So while I'm waiting along with you with definite impatience, I am not expecting a quick resolution - or even an announcement next week. And, even though I am writing this piece for Johnny's official website, I have no insider information to make what I say more authoritative. What follows is what I have been able to surmise based upon what's in the public domain. With that in mind, let's take a moment to examine the dynamics of putting together "CART Deals 2001".

The Assumptions: I began with the assumption that Johnny has been promised help by Ford, the parent company of Jaguar, in securing a ride for the upcoming year in CART. On the surface, this sounds promising - an engine manufacturer's backing is nothing to be taken lightly, after all - but as we say here in the US - it's no slam-dunk. 

However, the engine supplier is just one part of a CART deal. Most of the deals announced thus far for 2001 feature a team or a driver sponsor. Or both (see Michael Andretti.) I assume that Johnny lacks a committed sponsor. It's such sponsorship that may propel Adrian Fernandez into his own team. If this assumption is correct, lack of a sponsor could delay announcement of a deal for Johnny for 2001.

The Engine Derby: The withdrawal of Mercedes-Benz from CART in 2001 has had the effect of throwing the silly season into further uncertainty. It's not simply a case of the MB teams scrambling to find a new supplier. We must remember that all three remaining manufacturers want - indeed some expect - to win the engine championship. This means that - contracts notwithstanding - all teams are somewhat up for grabs - or at least renegotiation of their existing engine supply contracts. What this means for Johnny is that, if Ford helping him, Ford itself has no idea at the moment which teams will be using its engines in 2001. Hence, no announcements yet. And, likely none will come until the Engine Derby is decided. This could take weeks, not to mention, months.

The Boys from Brazil: My respect for Morris Nunn, who engineered the last 4 consecutive CART championship drivers, has just increased enormously. I understand he has turned down a firm offer to from Hollywood to sponsor a second car to partner with Tony Kanaan next year. The reason? The insistence from Hollywood that the driver be Brazilian. 

While I recognize that driver nationality is also a factor at times in F1, it has become absolutely ridiculous in CART. We have a disproportionate number of Brazilian drivers because Brazilian companies are willing to pay millions of dollars in sponsorship that US companies are apparently unwilling to pay. The problems with this are fairly obvious. There are Brazilian drivers who probably should not be here, and there are fewer drives for non-Brazilian racers. This includes obvious talents such as Johnny Herbert. It's also hurting the series as a whole because most of the races take place in North America - and few but the most avid of CART fans even recognize the drivers any more.

Getting back to Mo Nunn, I will go out on a limb here and predict that he will sign 1996 CART champion Jimmy Vasser as a second driver at Mo Nunn Racing using Honda power - unless Toyota is helping Vasser get a ride elsewhere - maybe Newman-Haas? I base this on the educated guess that Nunn would like to win more championships, and would consider this prospect more likely with someone he's done this with before. 

The Big Guys: I also assume that many of the engine deals will not finalize until "The Big Guys" sign their contracts AND that Johnny is only considering coming to CART with a major team, ie the Big Guys. We've been promised a decision on Ganassi's drivers in the next few weeks, and I'll take Chip at his word. If he has tested Johnny (and he has never to my knowledge signed a driver he's not tested) neither one is saying. Interesting, very interesting. So let's watch for Chip's announcement next week - or this one. Or the next one?

My Ganassi prediction is that Chip will sign either Bruno Junqueira OR Johnny Herbert. The reason? His sponsor, Target, is basically tame, but would become less so if there is no American driver associated with TCGR. Of those we know he's tested, there's Buddy Rice, the 2000 Formula Atlantics champion, and Casey Mears, who's a competent racer with a known racing surname. Of course, I am known to favor Rice as I consider him to be the more talented of the two. One of the big advantages of TCGR is that they are the only "Big Guys" committed to participate in the Indianapolis 500 - a race Johnny has told us he wants to win.

The Toy Story: In the past months, perhaps more teams than actually participate in CART have been rumored to have signed, or will be signing, contracts to run Toyota engines in 2001. And it makes me wonder: if Toy's checkbook is opened so very far, what's to stop them from also trying to secure good drivers for their new teams?

Toyota badly wants to win the manufacturer's championship, and they are willing to spend to do it. Perhaps they are interested in Johnny Herbert? Herbert driving for Toyota would make for a very interesting "Toy Story" indeed - so many teams - so many choices!

The Hidden Agendas: I always take silly season in any series with a grain of salt, because I'm aware that there are frequently hidden agendas and information that's not made public. These always help keep us humble, because what we don't know can make our predictions plain wrong. Take Newman-Haas. This team has been touted as Johnny's new home for several months now. Then we start to hear rumors about Christiano da Matta and Brazilian handshakes - then suddenly - no more mention of JH at Newman-Haas. Does this mean the deal is dead? And which deal has more rigor mortis?

What is for certain is that Carl Haas has Ford sweating bullets about whether or not he will jump ship to Toyota. He's claiming to only have his Kmart sponsorship for one more year. Who are Kmart's biggest competitors? Wal-Mart and - Target Stores. As Alice said, it just gets curiouser and curiouser! My guess is that Johnny already has a contract or a letter of intent with someone that guarantees him a ride and entrance into the Indy 500.

If I'm wrong, I would love to figure it all out again!

This article is copyright Lisa Davidson and the Johnny Herbert Website.
It may not reproduced, in whole or in part, without permission.
Page prepared 12th October 2000.